Peterson

I sit here and I try to formulate my mad drafting strategies for the upcoming fantasy football season.

I am in a weekly win league mainly its a small friends and family league its $105 a team for the year +$1 per move.   Money is kinda of funny.  I won the league about 3 years ago with +$70, and finished in second last year at +$110.  I think only 1 year someone won over $1,000, that year the league had 10 teams.

I might do a smaller money league on Yahoo with either 10-12 teams at $50-$100 total for the team.

Either way I value combos, duos, or tandems whatever you want to call them.  I value them to the point where my starting fantasy QB would be Eli Manning currently ranked 17th on Fantasy Pros being my starting QB if I landed OBJ.

I also think if Brian Hoyer wins the starting QB job in San Francisco hes going to put up 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns.  So at least in 1 league Ill be going for that ever dangerous Hoyer Garcon combo.  It is something even in a 12 team league I should be able to get mid to late rounds and its those picks that make your team.

Last year someone who won me 2 weeks was Mark Ingram, he started out real slow even got zonked against Seattle at home, he did manage to put up 2 30 point weeks, and won me 2 weeks.

I am targeting Mark Ingram again as a starting back.

This Adrian Peterson thing keeps popping up.  Look when I was younger parents where allowed to hit their kids.  One of my friends even had his mother break a plate over his head.  Guess what no one raised as much as an eyebrow about it.   So I cannot sit here and say Peterson is the spawn of satan and still like my friends parents without being a hypocrite.

I believe if he was still playing at an all pro level teams wouldnt care.  But enough people are probably bothered by what he did that his career maybe over.

Look, I want to target Ingram in fantasy so please stay out of New Orleans.

its like if Kaepernick could play football teams wouldnt care about his national anthem stunt he already said he wouldn’t do it again.  But elite and good QBs win games they shouldnt win, the 49ers won 1 game with Kaepernick, its not because of his anthem stunt he doesnt have a team its he sucks.

When Peterson was younger he was probably as electric to watch as Barry Sanders, but the 2016 was not very good.  Unless you can average over 4.0 yards per carry I would say you are not adding that much to the team unless you are a goal line specialist or short yardage specialist where everyone and their mother knows 3 and 1 and your getting the football, for the backs that make that 90% of the time their YPC is always going to suck, and they are always going to have a job.

But I think AP glory days are long gone, and I dont think he is worth the bad press for a club.

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Gambling

As far as court goes, there are 3 things I just love, gambling, role playing and deductive reasoning puzzles.  I get to do all three in court.

If your a fan of theatre you would probably find some of the really good larpers entertaining.  I am not one of them.

But I worked out a spread sheet I use for football.  It is rather simple I take the last 5 games add the points for against the other teams points against, and I do that for both teams, I then do that for the last 5 games at home v. the last 5 games on the road for the visiting team.

I look for statistical outliers after that against the spread.

Some weeks no team pops out, other weeks I have had a half dozen teams pop out.  I do not look to bet every week so if a team doesnt pop out I dont even think of betting.

But the teams that do pop out I have fun with.  I think every fantasy football writers tries to predict out comes of games, they do this when they say so and so is going to get X yards and X touchdowns or whatever.  I also try to figure out a kickers projected points v. the other projections 4 for example could be 4 extra points, or a field goal and an extra point, depending on how they called the rest of the team will determine which way they were thinking.

Look I follow different sports writers for different reasons.  So I started breaking down commentary.  For a well written and thought out argument I like someone like Jason Cole from yahoo. or Jamie Eisen I think from CBS, and I could go around, there are a few.

part of me really enjoyed Chris Berman sense of humor when I started watching NFL Primetime, out of the writers I find Brad Evans really funny,

Then there are people like Good Morning Football Kate Adams, my dream woman, but she really understands how injuries effect players.  Imagine a woman a guy could have an intelligent conversation with about fantasy football.  Shes out there.

Well, if all the writers agree with my warped statistically outliers I feel comfortable placing the bet or giving advice on it.  If even one of them is dead set against it I say Ill pass on betting that game.  Like if the Pats play Pittsburgh my system says the Pats should win by 14, the spread is 6.  I say I ok I like that bet enough to look into it, but if even one fantasy writer comes back with Pittsburgh upsetting the Pats I say I will not bet on that game.

Over the past 3 years I have been wrong twice, over the past 4 years I have been wrong 6 times.  The number of games I decide to bet on or give advice on vary between 10-12 games a year.  I dont like week 1 because its based on last year, I dont like week 17 because its based on next year and some weeks my system says I dont like any game enough to bet on.

But with my warped system, and enjoyment of gambling.

I became aware of a Federal Law that states “No state that houses a professional sport can allow gambling of that sport.”  I think there were 4 states or so that had legalized sports book betting, Nevada, Montana, New jersey and Delaware.  But even though both the Giants and Jets play in east rutherford new jersey they are called New York teams

with the Raiders moving from Oakland to Vegas I am curious how that is going to effect sports book betting in Vegas.

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The NFL Draft

I am a Pats fan I do not question the wisdom of Bill Bellichek.  Some of his ideas come with extreme optimism.

Really the Pats traded away a 1st and a 3rd for Brandon Cooks im just giddy.

You say they lost their 4th round pick for deflate gate.

You say they traded away a pick for a Carolina Defensive back.

Well that leaves them what 3 or 4 picks.  Not one until the 3rd round.

Well I say screw it f Goodell and trade your way out of the draft entirely screw it your half way there now.

I am tickled with the off season additions.  Or at least try and trade down the 3rd round draft pick for a 4 and a 6th or something.  A couple of more lotto picks and that would be  (2) days as a pats fan I do not feel i would have to watch the NFL draft and that bozo Goodell.

The Pats are not drafting I am not watching, its that simple.

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The Supreme Court

party lines pisses me off more and more.

Look i get it their is a republican president.  He has to appoint a judge.

Look one of the greatest liberal judges this country has ever known was appointed by guess who?  …..  ronald reagan.

Look grilling a standing judge about how he would vote on issues to me is just as fucking stupid as Donald Trump asking everyone but the DOJ if the former President bugged Trump towers.

Gorsuch has been a Judge since 2006 for the 10th Circuit court.  which I think covers Minnesota.

I absolutely loved everything he had to say when he got grilled.

But the paper he wrote in the truck driving case where the driver took shelter and was fired for it.   He wrote the company had no right to fire the driver.  Look I agree with it.

Granted something like that cannot happen realistically in Massachusetts because its an employment at will state.

But just judge the Judge on his papers and ask yourself.  Do I agree with this guy?  If you check off, yes I have agreed with him on 80% of his papers then nominate him would ya.

If you disagree with 80% of his papers send his ass packing.

But there is no reason to wag the dog with this one.  He has been a standing Federal Judge for the 10 Circuit court for 10 years.  By the was when he got appointed to that seat.  It was by a unanimous decision.

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Fantasy Thoughts 3/16/17

I really like the idea of Lacy going to Seattle.  I owned Lacy last year in fantasy land with the exception of the touchdown outage, I was reasonable happy with his yards per carry.  I was excited about how hard he looked to be running.

Pete loved Lynch, Lynch was a very physical back.  Some coaches have their things in what they like.  Bill Bellichek feels he can coach everything but speed, he does not care for top ends speed, but quickness from a standing position.  Well, I believe Pete loves physical football players, its easy to point to the legion of boom, and beast mode.  Then Pete goes out and grabs Jimmy Graham and I said what the fuck?

But if Eddie Lacy can get close to his draft weight or even his last years weight I think Pete will be really happy.  He has seen Green Bay in probably 3 or 4 games the last few years and got some looks at Lacy and game planning for him.  So he knows what hes getting.

 

If Lacy enters camp between 238-245, I would expect him to get a ton of carries, mainly so Wilson doesnt take the beating he took last year.  Running Backs are easier to replace.  But if Lacy enters camp at 238-245 and understands the playbook,  I think he can easily get 1250 to 1500 total yards for Pete.

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Malcolm Butler

Let me get this straight the Pats wanted to trade Butler to New Orleans, he refused to send a tender so the Pats couldnt trade him.

Now he wants out.   Well if Einstein wanted out all he had to do was the sign the tender.

Does he understand the NFL is a business?

Look there is a chance the Pats could pay him.  They still have plenty of money.

They entered Free Agency with about $60 million of funny money, their only big name signing was Gilmore.   I am shaking my head because Ryan is playing in Tennesse for $3 million less than Gilmore signed for.  So in Bills opinion Gilmore must be alot better.

I was under the impression Ryan was going to give the Pats a chance to match.

Someone else who should be getting paid is Hightower.  So between Gilmore and Hightower say $26 million of the $60 million is gone.  Well Harmon signed for a friendly price of around $5 million,  So now I hvae them at $29 million,  Allen and Cooks are both under $1 million each I think so lets say $27 million.

They dont have to pay Cooks until 3 years from now.  I dont think Allen will ever be a huge payday.

So if slap happy plays his cards right he gets what tagged and gets $15 million a year, or someone else pays him around $15 million a year.

But whinnie little bitches do not get serious f’in money.  Some other GM is going to say to himself do i want to deal with that, sure they will throw him some money probably but if hes not a whinnie little bitch he probably gets more money.

Look buddy if you want out it can probbaly easily be arranged there are probably multiple teams that would trade a 1st round pick for him.  Hes that good.  But the business of the NFL the Pats cant let him just walk away.

Look I think the Cooks trade could have been as simple as Butler for Cooks then something like a swap of first round picks if Butler has more perceived value or the Pats throw in something like a 3rd or a 4th if Cooks has more perceived value.

as a Pats fan I will probbaly always root for Butler but he has to understand the business side of the NFL.

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fantasy Friday

I sit here and wonder how Bellichek waves his magic wand sometimes.   With Snead, Thomas and Cooks the Saints probably had more quality at wide receiver than they needed but quality at the Saints and the Pats can be partial credited to the QB.  I think Breesy when he was with the Bolts had a winning record against Bellichek.

as a Pats fan swapping Ryan for Gilmore seems to be an upgrade, and in fantasy land it is definitely a pair of corners I do not want my wide receivers to go against.  An elite wide out might do ok 6 receptions 50-70 yards and maybe a touchdown.  There is a list of wide outs I play against anybody just with lower expectations against some corners.

The Pats lost Shread to the Colts he lost his starting job $8 million isnt alot of money for a starting edge rusher so I don’t think the Colts overpaid.  But it is way to much money for a backup.

I thought the Pats would have paid Bennett 3 years $21 million, the Packers did.  I guess the off season ankle surgery has Bill skeptical.  I figured if healthy Bennett would have landed around the $9-10 million range.  But if hes healthy for camp he should be an immediate upgrade over Cooks who they cut.  I can’t see it getting in the way of Nelson the odd men out in Green bay look to be Cobb and Adams who either dont show up every week, or are injuried off an on.  If Bennett is going to take away touches from people I would lean towards Cobbs and Adams.  Some games Nelson doesnt even get alot of looks he just has pretty good top end speed to run away from people.

My man Cousins got some love Friday they signed a wide out I like cheap in Prior, it should give Cousins not as bad of fall from losing Garcon and Jackson.  I do expect Prior to have around 1200 yards with Cousins.  I woudl expect Crowder to get more looks next season he did spike some weeks when others where injured.

Part of me believes Peyton is going to draft a fresh set of legs for Breesy, seems he does every year with both Cooks and Thomas being drafted recently, it might be Mickey Lomis.  But if they dont draft I wide out rounds 1 and 2 I would expect a serious uptick in Thomas and Snead value.  It is almost as bad as the Matt Millen drafts in Detriot we are going to draft a wide receiver every year, look I feel the Saints have enough quality wide outs with Breesy without drafting another wide reciever for the love god, draft a defensive player early, not because it will hurt or help my fantasy team but you do not need another wide out.  Fine you might want to humor Brees and draft a wide out but wait until least round 4 and draft D first.  I am a Pats fan, I just have all these memories of Saints receivers making Pats DBs look like high school kids.   I know you have a couple of tight ends that can occasional catch I do not watch enough Saints games to know if Hill can block.

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